Passing peak oil, skeptical people would say:
Sooner or later, we’ll reach again the past peak… it’s just a question of time.
Strictly speaking, it’s not possible to negate this statement but, thinking about it, I’ve started to wonder about another question:
What is the longest period in history between a local peak and its next greater or equal value?
To find the answer to my question, I’ve used:
- data kindly given to me by Jean Laherrère (thanks to Prof. Ugo Bardi, too) for the 1857-1958 period.
- the BP Historical data Workbook for the 1965-2006 period;
As you notice, I wasn’t able to find data for the 1959-1964 period but fortunately it’s not a problem because the answer - according to the available data, of course - is: 14 years (therefore it’s more than the missing years). This period of 14 years is placed between 1979 and 1993.
That wouldn’t be enough for the incorrigible sceptic but it might be of some interest for anyone else. 
You can download here the computed data:
- 1857-1958_1965-2006 (csv format);
- 1857-1958_1965-2006 (ods format);
- the list of peaks/next greater (text).
Last update: 2008-08-26
